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Lower mortgage rates and rising inventory tip Alberta’s housing market toward a slight seller advantage.
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Rate Forecast
The 8-month outlook currently shows 5-year fixed mortgage rates at around 3.95%, with potential for further declines before returning and stabilizing at this level.
Rate Movement
Two Bank of Canada rate cuts totalling 0.50% are expected in the next 12 months, likely providing relief for borrowers and supporting fixed-rate mortgages.
Housing Market
Ontario's average home price was approximately $528,261 in June 2025, up 4.1% from last year.
Forecasted Rate Cuts
Q2 2025
0 CUT
Projected
Q3 2025
1 CUT
Projected
Q4 2025
1 CUT
Projected
Q1 2026
0 CUT
Projected
Next BOC rate cut expected in Q3 2025, with a current market probability of over 70%. Only rate cuts with a likelihood of 70% or higher are displayed.
Fixed Rates
Bank of Canada policy and bond yields are influencing direction.
Variable Rates
Prime discounts are widening, favouring buyers.
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AlbertaMORTGAGE RATES

Customize your rate research playing field
Stability and predictable payments
Most buyers choose a 5-year fixed mortgage because it’s steady, simple, and predictable. You’ll lock in a set rate for five years. Your monthly payments won’t change, even if market rates go up.
Fixed rates tend to cost a bit more, but many buyers find the peace of mind is worth it. Just keep in mind that if you break your mortgage early, the penalties can vary widely. It’s worth having your broker compare the fine print.
Balancing stability with flexibility
A 3-year fixed mortgage gives you stable payments now with the flexibility to reassess your plans sooner than a 5-year term. It’s a solid choice if you think your situation might change—whether that’s a potential move, a job shift, or rate changes on the horizon. You’ll get short-term security without committing to a full five years or taking on the uncertainty of a variable rate.
Savings potential with market-driven rates
Variable rates rise or fall with your lender’s prime rate, which means your payments can change over time. These mortgages usually start lower than fixed rates and may come with more flexible terms, like lower penalties if you break early. If you’re comfortable with some payment fluctuation, a variable rate can be a smart way to save more over the long run.
2025 Mortgage Rate Forecast in Alberta
Rates are heading down, but not back to pre-pandemic levels. Here’s how the market is shaping up this year.
Variable Rates Expected to Shift
Variable rates are set to move the most. The Bank of Canada is holding steady at 2.75% in June, but analysts expect two more rate cuts by the end of 2025. If that happens, the prime rate could drop, and variable mortgage rates may fall to around 3.7–4.0%.
Fixed Rates Trending Down Slowly
Fixed rates are also trending down, just at a slower pace. They follow 5-year bond yields, which have already dropped from their 2024 highs. Most forecasts expect fixed rates to settle near 4.0% by the end of the year, creating a solid window to lock in without overpaying.
What This Means for Alberta Buyers
Whether you’re buying, renewing, or refinancing, now’s a smart time to revisit your mortgage strategy. Even a small rate shift can save you thousands over time, and in an unpredictable market, locking in a strong rate can offer valuable peace of mind.
Rather than trying to time the market, focus on finding a mortgage that fits your plans, your budget, and your comfort with risk. That’s where EveryRate can help—by showing you live mortgage offers from a wide range of lenders so you can move forward with confidence.
Alberta Housing Trends: What You Need to Know
Rates aren’t the only thing changing. Alberta’s real estate market is shifting, too. Here’s what’s driving demand, where prices are rising, and how tight inventory might shape your next move.
Home Prices Are Climbing
The average home price in Alberta hit $525,135 in April 2025, up 5.1% year-over-year. Calgary and Edmonton lead the way, with 13% and 10% gains, while smaller markets like Grande Prairie and Medicine Hat are also seeing above-average growth:
- Calgary: $761,800 average detached price (+13%)
- Edmonton: $432,400 average price (+10.1%)
- Grande Prairie: +15% price growth
- Medicine Hat: +20% price growth
Sales Have Slowed, But Supply Is Still Tight
Sales are down 6.7% compared to last year, but inventory is still tight. Right now, there are only 2.4 months of housing supply available, far below the 4–6 months needed for a balanced market. Medicine Hat has the lowest supply in the province, with just 1.25 months of inventory.
That limited supply puts pressure on the market. The sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at 63%, which keeps most regions in mild seller’s-market territory. Buyers may see more listings than last year, but homes are still moving quickly.
Construction Is Booming
Alberta is seeing record-level construction activity, with 68,494 housing starts recorded in May 2025 (seasonally adjusted). This is 79% above the five-year average and the highest in provincial history. These new builds include both houses and apartments, many of which are rental units. Even with more homes underway, it may take time for new inventory to ease pressure on buyers, especially in high-demand areas.
What’s Driving the Market?
- Population Growth: More than 50,000 people moved to Alberta in 2023, pushing demand higher and bringing vacancy rates to 2.1%.
- Rental Pressure: Rent prices are up 11% from last year. For many, buying looks more appealing than renting long-term.
- Affordability: Homes in Alberta cost much less than in most of Canada. The average price is around $500,000, making it attractive for buyers and investors.
Alberta Real Estate: What to Expect Throughout 2025
- Consistent Sales Activity: Sales should stay steady as population growth continues.
- Gradual Price Increases: Expect mid-single-digit price gains province-wide.
- Increased Inventory: Supply will improve, but not enough to shift into a buyer’s market yet.
- Investment Potential: High rental demand and appreciating values make Alberta a promising long-term investment.
Whether you’re buying your first home or looking for your next investment, Alberta’s mix of affordability and growth potential makes it a strong market.
How Much Do You Need for a Down Payment in Alberta?
You need 5% down to get a mortgage. To skip mortgage insurance, you’ll need 20%. The total dollar amount depends on where you’re buying and how much the home costs.
To give you a ballpark idea, here’s what 5% and 20% down payments look like based on average detached home prices in a few key Alberta regions:
Region | Avg. Detached Price | 5% Down | 20% Down |
---|---|---|---|
Strathcona County (Sherwood Park) | $537,000 | $26,850 | $107,400 |
Red Deer | $400,782 | $20,039 | $80,156 |
Lethbridge | $472,989 | $23,649 | $94,598 |
Wood Buffalo (Fort McMurray) | $392,035 | $19,602 | $78,407 |
Heads up: These numbers don’t include legal fees or closing costs. Budget a little extra so you’re not caught off guard.
First-Time Home Buyer Programs in Alberta
Alberta has some great programs to help first-time buyers. Here’s a quick overview of each:
Alberta PEAK Program
- Offers up to 5% of the purchase price as down payment support
- No interest or repayment required for the first 5 years
- After 5 years, repayment begins gradually over your mortgage term
- Income limits: $80K (no kids) or $90K (with kids)
- Minimum $1,000 down payment required from the buyer
The First Place Program in Edmonton
- Defers land costs for 5 years on select townhomes in specific developments (e.g., Michael’s Park)
- No interest during the deferral period
- Full land cost due after 5 years
- Income limit: $130K or less
- Must be a first-time buyer with under $25K in net worth (excluding some assets)
Attainable Homes Calgary (AHC)
- You contribute $2,000, and AHC covers the rest of the down payment
- Interest-free grant; when you sell, the program keeps a share of the home’s increase in value
- Income limits: $103K (families), $93K (couples), $83K (individuals)
- Must have under $50K in assets
- Completion of a home education session is required
Why Alberta’s Programs Stand Out
We believe Alberta offers some of the most practical and accessible first-time buyer programs in Canada, especially if saving for a full down payment has been holding you back. Whether you need help with 5% down or want to defer upfront costs, there’s real support available here.
Each program has its own criteria, so it’s worth reviewing the fine print. A good broker can walk you through your options and help you apply for the ones that fit your income, assets, and long-term goals.
Additional Mortgage Costs in Alberta
Alberta takes a unique approach to property transfer costs. Instead of charging a traditional land transfer tax, buyers pay Land Transfer Registration Fees and Mortgage Registration Fees.
Land Transfer Registration Fee
This is based on your home’s purchase price. You’ll pay a flat $50 fee, plus $5 for every $5,000 of the purchase price. For example, you’d pay $350 total for a $300,000 home.
Mortgage Registration Fee
There’s a second mortgage fee calculated similarly but based on your mortgage amount. It’s a flat $50 fee, plus $5 for every $5,000 of the mortgage amount. For a $240,000 mortgage, you’re looking at $290.
Total Cost Example
If you’re buying a $300,000 home with a $240,000 mortgage, here’s what you’d pay:
- Land Transfer Registration: $350
- Mortgage Registration: $290
- Total: $640
Low Closing Costs: A Major Advantage for Alberta Buyers
Compared to provinces with complex land transfer taxes, Alberta’s system is simple, transparent, and affordable. Even after recent fee increases, Alberta’s closing costs remain among the lowest in the country.
That means more of your money goes toward your home, not hidden fees.
Mortgage Regulations in Alberta: What You Need to Know
Alberta mortgages follow both provincial and federal rules. That means no matter who you borrow from—a bank, broker, or credit union—certain standards apply. Understanding these standards can help you feel more confident when comparing options.
Who Regulates Mortgages in Alberta?
- Real Estate Council of Alberta (RECA): Sets and enforces professional standards for mortgage brokers, real estate professionals, and property managers under the Real Estate Act.
- Alberta Superintendent of Financial Institutions: Oversees provincial lenders and ensures compliance with provincial lending rules.
- Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI): Regulates federally chartered banks and lenders, setting national rules like mortgage stress tests and lending practices.
While the rules may come from different places, they all work toward the same goal: protecting you as a borrower.
What to Watch for When You Apply
Knowing how those rules apply can help you borrow smarter. Here’s how to make the most of Alberta’s system:
- Verify that your mortgage broker is licensed and in good standing with the RECA.
- Understand the rules for high-ratio mortgages (less than 20% down), including required disclosures and long-term costs.
- Familiarize yourself with federal guidelines, such as the mortgage stress test, to know how your borrowing power could be affected.
- Be cautious with private or syndicated lending. Ask about licensing, disclosures, and repayment structures before committing.
The bottom line? The more you understand upfront, the fewer surprises you'll face later. A little due diligence now can make a big difference in how confident you feel signing on the dotted line.